A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have won 27 of 28 series. The sole exception came in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Of those 28 series, an overwhelming 20 ended in sweeps.
The Panthers are hoping to sweep the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. Even if the Oilers manage to send the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, 25 of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games. Nevertheless, the Oilers still believe they can defy the odds.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are now 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton did show some fight in the third period of Thursday's game, scoring goals through Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to cut the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice in a must-win game—against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
The Oilers' downfall came in an embarrassing 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three goals. Edmonton had just tied the game at 1-all with a Warren Foegele breakaway goal. A turnover by Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, who made it 2-1, deflating the crowd at 9:12. By 13:57, solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk forced a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett snapped into the net for his seventh of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that the Oilers allowed to start deep inside their own attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
The mistakes piled up for Edmonton, while goals from their star players did not. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm all found the back of the net. However, the Oilers' top five scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have yet to make a mark on the score sheet in this series.
Edmonton's power play, which entered the series operating at over 37%, has been rendered powerless by Florida's penalty kill, which stands at 10-for-10. McDavid has contributed with assists on three of the four Oilers' goals in the series and is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to record a point on at least half of his team's goals in the postseason, the other being Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. Unfortunately, the rest of the team has yet to score a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
The frustration is palpable within the Oilers' camp. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," stated Draisaitl.
He continued, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of." Goaltender Stuart Skinner added, "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Coach Kris Knoblauch remains optimistic, "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It’s not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
Knoblauch added, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing." Summing it up, Skinner noted, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl concluded, "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."