Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team has always relied on strategy, knowledge, and a calculated approach to risk-taking. This year's pool of players presents a fascinating mix of consistent performers and high-risk, high-reward bets.
Key Players and Their Projections
One of the standout names in fantasy basketball circles is Joel Embiid. He is projected to average over 60 fantasy points per game this season, building on his impressive average of 61 fantasy points per game from last season. However, fantasy managers should be cautious, as Embiid has never played more than 68 games in a season and managed only 39 games last year. This makes him a high-risk, high-reward pick, especially considering the potential for injury-related absences.
Nikola Jokic, on the other hand, offers a more reliable option. Jokic played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69 games in his career. This durability paired with his consistent performance makes him a cornerstone for any fantasy team aiming for stability and high returns.
Veteran Stars: Steady or Slowing Down?
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are another duo worth considering, though their recent game histories suggest some reservations might be in order. LeBron, now turning 40, played 71 games last season but averaged only 52 games over the previous three seasons. Anthony Davis, despite playing 76 games last season, has managed to exceed 70 games in consecutive seasons only once in his 12-year career. These factors underscore the importance of balancing potential output with the likelihood of games played.
Rising Talents and Potential Risks
Ja Morant is an exciting talent, yet his availability remains a concern. Last season, Morant missed 73 games due to suspension and injury. Nevertheless, his averages over the past three seasons—26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG)—highlight his impact when on the court. At 25 years old, Morant is entering his prime, but the uncertainty surrounding his availability could be a gamble.
Kevin Durant is another prominent name who played 75 games last season and is entering his 18th NBA season at 36 years old. Durant's enduring skill and experience make him a valuable asset, though his advancing age might begin to play a role in his overall contributions over a long season.
Unpredictable Stars
Kyrie Irving stands out for his impressive statistical contributions and inconsistent availability. Over the last five seasons, Irving has averaged 26.7 PPG, 49.3% in field goal percentage (FG%), 39.9% in three-point percentage (3P%), and 91.2% in free throw percentage (FT%). Despite these remarkable numbers, he has only averaged 44.2 games per season in the same period. Last season, he ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game but was 47th in total fantasy points, reflecting his limited participation.
Zion Williamson is another player whose performance is often overshadowed by concerns over his game time. Between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, Williamson averaged 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG but played just 90 of 236 possible regular-season games. Encouragingly, he reached a career-high of 70 games played last season and posted a 27.1 PPG average over a 10-game stretch late in the season. Nevertheless, his history of injuries makes him a risky pick.
Closing Thoughts
When assembling a fantasy basketball team, balancing consistent performance with the potential risks associated with injuries and game time is crucial. Players like Nikola Jokic, with his consistent game attendance, present a safer bet. In contrast, high-impact but injury-prone players like Joel Embiid and Zion Williamson offer significant return on investment, provided they stay healthy.
As the fantasy basketball season approaches, these insights into key players' past performances and projected contributions can help fantasy managers make informed decisions, aiming to strike the perfect balance between reliability and the potential for high rewards.