The Minnesota Twins' recent trip to Progressive Field ended in heartache as they squandered a three-run lead, falling 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The game took a dire turn when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. This latest defeat marks the Twins' 18th loss in their last 27 games, a stretch that has seen their grip on the third AL wild-card spot become tenuous, with their lead reduced to a mere 1 1/2 games.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," said starting pitcher Pablo López, reflecting the growing desperation within the clubhouse.
Troubling Trends
The team's postseason odds have taken a significant hit. According to FanGraphs, the Twins' odds of making the postseason stood at an enviable 95.4% as of September 5. However, recent missteps have slashed those odds to 76.4%. This decline is largely attributable to their inability to consistently score runs. In 12 of their last 27 games, the Twins failed to score more than three times—a revealing statistic that underscores their continuing offensive struggles.
"If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," stated manager Rocco Baldelli, pinpointing offensive inefficacy as a key issue.
Offensive and Pitching Woes
The numbers paint a bleak picture: during this 27-game stretch, the Twins have batted .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. When the bases are empty, their hitting average dips to a troubling .272, placing them among the league's worst in such scenarios. This offensive sputter has not only cost them wins but also tested their overall team consistency.
While the bullpen had managed a respectable 3.84 ERA in the first 123 games of the season, recent performances have been less encouraging. In the same 27-game span, the bullpen's ERA ballooned to 5.47, accompanied by a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. Griffin Jax's late-game collapse against the Guardians underscores the bullpen's struggles.
"It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," Jax admitted, highlighting the mental and physical exhaustion gripping the team.
Meanwhile, the rotation hasn't fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start over the last 27 games. Despite holding leads in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses, the Twins have consistently failed to close out games.
Injury and Lineup Changes
With critical games ahead, the return of Max Kepler offers a glimmer of hope, as does the acquisition of lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin's versatility could prove valuable.
"We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," explained Derek Falvey, highlighting the strategic thinking behind the move.
Race for the Wild Card
The race for the AL wild-card spot remains fiercely competitive, with the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners only two games behind the Twins. Both teams present serious threats, as the Tigers have gone an impressive 23-10 in their last 33 games. Fortunately for Minnesota, they hold crucial tiebreakers over both Detroit and Seattle.
Despite a favorable head-to-head record, the Twins must find their form quickly. The struggles of stars like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who are a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month, encapsulate the broader challenges facing the team.
"We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," Baldelli reiterated. The coming days will be pivotal for the Twins, whose postseason aspirations hinge on reversing their fortunes.